In Spain's snap elections, can Sánchez pull off one final comeback?
Connor Summerell • Europe & World • 2 minute read
Image: European Parliament / Flickr
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Pedro Sánchez is a political phenomenon who has defined Spanish politics for the past decade. Since becoming leader of the centre-left Spanish Workers’ Party in 2014, he has returned his ideological caucus to power and steered Spain through a plethora of international and domestic crises. Both a political animal and an effective governor, Pedro Sánchez has defied the political odds before in 2023 when he unexpectedly won a further term as PM despite a brutal set of regional election results and winning fewer votes than Spain’s centre-right Partido Popular. While the darling of the often beleaguered international centre-left has been the ultimate political survivor up until now, current circumstances suggest that on the 29th of November his political career (at least domestically) may come to an end.
The next few months will have not only a defining legacy within Spain, but across the entirety of Europe
Since 2023, Sánchez has governed Spain with a precarious coalition of left and centre-left, regional separatist, and right-wing parties. Despite this unconventional mix, the coalition has successfully managed to remain in power for around three years of a four-year term. This all came to an end a few weeks ago when the Catalan party Junts voted against the government’s housing proposals. This decision provoked widespread protests throughout the country, in part due to the fact that the reforms proposed were influenced by the case of Maricarmen, a pensioner who was evicted from her home and has subsequently passed away. Never one to miss a crisis, Sánchez announced his intention to hold elections on the 29th of November in the hopes that he could fight the election on housing, which forms part of the left’s terra firma. This could be a masterstroke of politics from the PM, given that the summer saw his government plagued with a series of corruption scandals and the migration crisis in Ceuta.
What remains to be seen is whether the left can still win an election on a housing crisis after over 8 years in power. The polls would suggest not.
Image: Sergio Guardiola Herrador / Unsplash
It looks like the right-wing coalition of the Partido Popular and far-right VOX would hold a commanding majority in the national assembly should an election be held today. While there is still well over a month of campaigning left, the deficit that the left-wing coalition will have to overcome is quite frankly remarkable. A commentator from the newspaper El País said that a swing of the magnitude necessary for a left-wing victory is without precedent in Spain. This is not to say the outcome of the election is decided, and with Trump in the White House, we have seen other centre-left leaders monopolise on their strong stance against the US administration to reverse their political fortunes. However, as things stand, this campaign is likely to be a farewell tour for Sánchez.
So what could happen over the next few weeks leading up to the election? Well, as in all modern democracies, the options are nearly endless. We could see a great national rallying behind Sánchez and the left in response to recent social unrest. We could also see a further crisis in immigration propel VOX yet further. A key issue in the imminent future is whether those parties to the left of Sánchez’s can form a coalition that would be beneficial when seats are distributed following the election and could help secure (or destroy all hope of) a left-wing victory.
What is without a doubt is that the next few months will have not only a defining legacy within Spain, but across the entirety of Europe.
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•Published: 18/10/26
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