At the polls: Abdi-Wali wins Holborn and St Pancras
George Marshall • UK • 2 minute read
Image: Zoukuk / Unsplash
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Last Thursday’s by-election in Keir Starmer’s old seat was billed as the first real test of Burnham’s premiership. The result, coming at a time of positive national polling, gives Labour plenty to be pleased about. However, we should also be cautious about some others.
Sagal Abdi-Wali held the seat for Labour with 12,292 votes, or 45.2%, a majority of 3,364 over Green leader Zack Polanski on 32.8%. This presents an interesting set of figures that is already being used by the Green Party: whilst Labour’s share fell only 3.7 points in 2024, the Greens rose by 22.4 points. The Green Party have been arguing that this election and the work of the Greens turned a safe seat into a marginal, attempting to justify their loss. On the other hand, we see Labour beat predicted polling in recent weeks. PollCheck’s projection had Labour on 40.4% and the Greens on 35.6%. Labour beat that by almost five points, and the Greens undershot it by almost three.
Image: London Assembly / WikiCommons
Why the Greens fell short is the most interesting question. Polanski’s campaign was overshadowed by his own party conference, where members passed a motion declaring Zionism a form of racism. New Opinium polling suggests the damage went beyond Camden. Polanski’s net rating has dropped seven points to -29, making him the least popular main party leader. Only 16% of the public thought the motion was right, and one in three said it made them think worse of the Greens. It was only after this campaign that Polanski made his position against this motion clear. Nationally, the Greens are on 9%, down two.
The same poll is encouraging for Labour. It puts them on 29% (down one), with Reform on 23% (down two) and the Conservatives on 20% (up three). A YouGov poll the same week had Labour at 27% and Reform at 22%. Burnham is the only leader with a positive approval rating, at +8.
The lesson from Camden is that Burnham's "hope" message can see off the Greens
Behind that headline are some real warning signs. Turnout in Holborn and St Pancras was 38.8%, down 15.3 points. Labour’s raw vote also fell sharply from the 18,884 Starmer won in 2024. The Conservatives’ recovery matters too. Opinium’s James Crouch noted that Labour and the Conservatives now have their highest combined share in almost two years, and asked whether this is “as good as it gets for the old guard”.
The lesson from Camden is that Burnham’s “hope” message can see off the Greens. A good week for Labour owes a lot to a bad week for the Greens. Will Polanski be leader long enough to try again?
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•Published: 11/10/26
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