At the polls: A hung
Parliament on the horizon?
George Marshall • UK • 2 minute read
Image: House of Commons / Flickr
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Earlier this week, YouGov published its latest MRP, the first constituency-level election projection since Burnham came to power. Its outcome: a mixed picture of positives and negatives for Labour.
YouGov’s MRP model, surveying close to 17,000 people across the country between the 23rd of August and 18th September 2026, suggests that if an election were held tomorrow, Labour would return to Parliament with 241 seats. This is a disappointing 85 seats short of the majority they need, and a drastic fall from the 411 they won in 2024. This would leave the task of forming a government complex, but I’ll come on to that later.
There are a number of reasons for Labour to be positive about this recent data, not only because they are the largest party. The first should clearly be the growth in popularity of the party since Burnham became PM, with this MRP showing Labour to be up by 97 seats since this time last year. Two months into the job, there are clear signs Burnham is turning the party around with his message and embodiment of "hope".
Labour would be the largest party in Parliament with currently not enough seats to hold a majority
For Labour, things also look on the sunnier side when looking at Reform’s performance. Compared to MRP data from this time last year, when Reform UK was close to a majority, they are now only expected to win 123. What’s more is that the Conservatives are predicted to win 130, meaning that even if the Conservatives and Reform did sign an election pact, they would still be way off the number needed to have a majority. As things stand, when considering the split between left- and right-wing parties, it’s clear the country currently prefers those on the left.
With this data, Labour would be the largest party in Parliament, with currently not enough seats to hold a majority. The question is now – which other parties could enter coalition?
Image: House of Commons/ Flickr
The most obvious answer is the Liberal Democrats, who hold up well in this model, being projected to win 71 seats. But even a Labour-Liberal Democrat pairing would not be enough on its own. Burnham would likely therefore also need to look further afield, and this will be difficult, with the only remaining options being the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.
Whilst Labour may be in a better place than it was this time last year, this data shows Burnham could be left eyeing a genuinely awkward set of options where no one really knows how it might go. The SNP’s surge to 40 seats makes them a potential contender to be in a government (the first time it would happen), but their price for cooperation – independence – is not one Burnham is likely to pay.
Labour must strive over the next few years to push up their number of seats to avoid that coalition, or it must work to improve relations with parties they may one day govern with. Winning the largest number of seats may be easy for Labour with Burnham at the helm, but achieving a majority may not be. Will conference season change any of that?
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•Published: 27/09/26
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