At the polls: Labour on the rise as donors fuel Farage
George Marshall • UK • 2 minute read
Image: House of Commons / Flickr
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Burnham is now just a week away from having been PM for two whole months. Marked by continuing support for Ukraine, implementing measures to cut down on some elements of the cost-of-living crisis, and setting a trade embargo on Israeli settlements, his time in office has undoubtedly been met with action and a separation from a past that left so many Labour members isolated.
Polls do reflect that: since Burnham entered Number 10, Labour has risen by three points in the polls from 20 per cent and is now at the highest since just after the 2024 General Election, according to YouGov. With the tide turning, Labour may have another reason to rejoice, with support for Reform seemingly in steady decline since early June.
Coverage of... [Reform's] new record-breaking donations and greater emphasis on Farage's own finances may diminish the Party's positions
With some polls suggesting Labour are three points ahead of Reform this week, others indicating they remain neck-and-neck, and even some suggesting Reform are now in third place below Labour and the Tories, it’s clear that the next few weeks will be central to seeing if Labour can take the place of the most popular party in Britain once again.
Key events may play into this equation, notably new colossal donations to Reform by crypto billionaires Den Delo and Christopher Harborne, summing to a total of £72,000,000. With Reform's previous donation scandals seen over the summer having a huge impact on Reform, with key personnel like James Orr being forced out, coverage of these new record-breaking donations and greater emphasis on Farage’s own finances may diminish the Party's position in the polls.
As the close battle between Labour and Reform continues, other polling data is also worthy of attention this week. The first is that some polls report the Conservatives have had their highest vote share since January, an indication of Reform decline as much as it is of Tory growth under Kemi Badenoch. This is particularly significant because the Conservatives have spent their time since July 2024 struggling to establish themselves as the principal party of the right as they once were. Reform’s rise has left Badenoch fighting on two fronts as they attempt to rebuild the party's traditional support whilst preventing Conservative voters from defecting to Farage. Now, as Reform’s support is in decline, the Conservatives begin to edge upwards.
Image: Number 10 / Flickr
Another is anticipation over what we might see in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, with eyes now focused on it as Zack Polanski is selected as the Green Party’s candidate. Whilst no official polling has been conducted on the constituency, data from the 2024 General Election shows Labour had a near 40 per cent margin over the Greens. May’s Camden local elections also show that Labour won 38.8 per cent of the vote compared to the Greens' 28.8 per cent. The two-horse race between Polanski and Sagal Abdi-Wali (Labour’s candidate) will be close, but data from the general election and May’s election does offer significant hope for Labour. If Polanski does lose, it may well mean the end of his leadership and the end of the Green Party as we know it – the stakes, for Labour, are incredibly high.
Britain’s political landscape is shifting once again, with Labour gaining ground, Reform losing Momentum, and the Conservatives perhaps on the road to recovery. With the Holborn and St Pancras by-election looming, and Reform’s finances under scrutiny for the third time this summer, the next few weeks could prove decisive in determining whether Labour’s resurgence is a genuine revival, or simply a part of the 'Burnham Bounce'.
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•Published: 13/09/26
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