On the Hill: The midterms are finally here, and the wrath of history is calling
Cianan Sheekey • US • 2 minute read
Image: Kelly Sikkema / Unsplash
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As America takes down the cobwebs and tombstones littering the nation’s front yards, another (far more serious) skeleton is loitering in the closet, and its time has come. The 2026 midterms are here, and the Republicans are dead men walking. There’s a Mitch McConnell zombie joke to be made here.
There are few metrics for which the Republican Party can be optimistic. Gas prices are currently over a dollar and ten cents more expensive than a year ago; Trump, although not on the ballot, is deeply unpopular, reflecting a general political unease with the GOP; and the polling data, alongside the betting markets, concur that a “blue wave is coming”.
Those who don't learn the lessons of history are bound to repeat them
For the sake of nuance, it has to be said that the phenomenon of a president’s party losing control of Congress, particularly the House, during the midterms is quite common. Clinton infamously lost both the House and Senate in 1994, ending a run of Democratic Senates that ran back to the beginning of the Cold War. The perceived failings of the Clinton administration were a death sentence for the Democrats that year, with the midterms often serving as a large-scale popularity poll.
With the War on Terror looming, during the midterms of his second term, George W. Bush’s popularity was similar to that of Trump’s. The Republicans, despite now having a president who is the antithesis of Bush’s establishment conservatism, face a similar thrashing as they did in 2006, with the ‘America First’ international agenda crumbling at the seams. American parties win elections on economics and lose them on international affairs, and those who don’t learn the lessons of history are bound to repeat them.
Another dimension of the midterms is that Americans get to go to the ballot box for the first time since many of the recent revelations related to Jeffrey Epstein’s criminal web have come to light. Add in the botched release of the files after the signing of the Epstein Transparency Act, and the electorate has a chance to slam those involved with the New York financier, with attack ads on the issue circulating widely (as they should).
Image: Element5 Digital / Unsplash
The US is a large country, with more democracy than most people can stomach, so the question becomes: where should we be watching during the midterms? Given the overwhelming likelihood that the Democrats will take back the House, we’re all on Senate watch.
Texas will be interesting, with the ideologically entrenched Republican state flirting with Democrat James Talarico over stalwart fiscal conservative Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton is the living embodiment of backed-by-money, and that’s increasingly hard to sell to voters in an affordability crisis. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed is flying high on a progressive platform, while a part of the Senate furniture, Susan Collins, is facing off with Troy Jackson in Maine, where the Democrats did well during the last presidential election. The Republicans will need to lose almost all of these historically comfortable but currently uneasy seats to hold the Senate, although with Vance as Vice President, a monumental multilateral Congressional flip seems perhaps a step too far.
But it’s not impossible. Attempting to put voters off going blue, Senator Ted Cruz has warned that Trump will face impeachment if the Democrats come out of the midterms too strong. Yes, Ted, for many voters that’s precisely the point. And it’s that kind of ignorance that will make November 3rd a long day for the GOP.
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•Published: 01/11/26
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